The best books on harnessing the power of human foresight

We will need optimism to tackle the big challenges ahead of us. We should therefore understand some of the strengths and pitfalls of this mindset. I read Tali Sharot’s The Optimism Bias while I was working on a research project about self-deception and the book made a big impression. Sharot is one of the world’s leading cognitive neuroscientists and in this book she offers more than a description of a decision-making bias. Instead, she provides a detailed, sweeping account of how optimism works in the brain, operates in cognition, and plays out in diverse areas of human life. One key lesson: optimism about the future should be embraced with an awareness of both its adaptive benefits and its potentially devastating costs.

The Good Ancestor is a rallying cry for considering the interests of future generations. The author, philosopher Roman Krznaric, brings a holistic, empathetic eye to our stewardship of the planet. The book is big on activism and creativity, full of fascinating references to mind-expanding art projects that re-frame our relationship with the future, explorations of transcendent goals for our species, and ideas about how to build more just, equitable relationships with each other and all those who will follow us.

Around the time my co-authors and I finished working on our book, I was browsing a favorite local bookstore and came across Ari Wallach’s little gem of a book, Longpath. While our book is all about the cognitive science of foresight, what I found in Wallach’s was a wealth of wisdom on why and how to use that foresight for good. It is a highly accessible and relatable book, as well as earnest and hopeful. Wallach points out that our current era presents an incredible opportunity to write a new future for our species. What should our telos be? While the book zooms out to the extremely big picture of the far future, Wallach ultimately finds the fulcrum of change in the small, controllable moments of our everyday lives where we have the greatest opportunity to adopt longer-term habits of thought and action.

This excellent book by Bina Venkataraman builds directly on research into the psychology of foresight and then masterfully integrates that research with everyday personal concerns and broader societal issues. Venkataraman ranges from individual choices to the decisions made by corporations and governments, providing detailed and often riveting examples along the way to show us how we can all think ahead better. Many insights from the book resonated with me. For instance, Venkataraman shows that while it might sometimes feel like humans are doomed to short-termism, she argues we can, in fact, choose to harness our ability to think about the future to make enormous positive change. The book manages to be simultaneously inspiring and pragmatic. 

In The Long View, Richard Fisher provides a kaleidoscopic view of mental time travel. The book dives into the history of long-term thinking and explores its many facets, including the economic forces and political pressures that drive people to focus on the here and now. We learn about the psychology of foresight, but also about how foresight can be channeled by religion, philosophy, and art. Despite the huge range of topics, Fisher pulls together a clear-headed analysis that will serve as a powerful counterweight to the short-termism he aptly diagnoses in the opening sections of the book. Fisher writes for the BBC and has a wonderful newsletter, also called The Long View, which I highly recommend.